(Tobacco Sales in 39 US States)
Panel variable: state (strongly balanced)
Time variable: year, 1970 to 2000
Delta: 1 unit
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Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
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First Step: Data Setup
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control units: for 38 of out 38 units missing obs for predictor lnincome in per
> iod 1970 -ignored for averaging
control units: for 38 of out 38 units missing obs for predictor lnincome in per
> iod 1971 -ignored for averaging
treated unit: for 1 of out 1 units missing obs for predictor lnincome in period
> 1970 -ignored for averaging
treated unit: for 1 of out 1 units missing obs for predictor lnincome in period
> 1971 -ignored for averaging
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Data Setup successful
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Treated Unit: California
Control Units: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut,
Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana,
Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine,
Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana,
Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico,
North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South
Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont,
Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming
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Dependent Variable: cigsale
MSPE minimized for periods: 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Results obtained for periods: 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000
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Predictors: beer(1984(1)1988) lnincome retprice age15to24
cigsale(1988) cigsale(1980) cigsale(1975)
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Unless period is specified
predictors are averaged over: 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
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Second Step: Run Optimization
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Optimization done
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Third Step: Obtain Results
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Loss: Root Mean Squared Prediction Error
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RMSPE | 1.943233
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Unit Weights:
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Co_No | Unit_Weight
---------------+------------
Alabama | 0
Arkansas | 0
Colorado | .285
Connecticut | .101
Delaware | 0
Georgia | 0
Idaho | 0
Illinois | 0
Indiana | 0
Iowa | 0
Kansas | 0
Kentucky | 0
Louisiana | 0
Maine | 0
Minnesota | 0
Mississippi | 0
Missouri | 0
Montana | 0
Nebraska | 0
Nevada | .245
New Hampshire | 0
New Mexico | 0
North Carolina | 0
North Dakota | 0
Ohio | 0
Oklahoma | 0
Pennsylvania | 0
Rhode Island | 0
South Carolina | 0
South Dakota | 0
Tennessee | 0
Texas | 0
Utah | .369
Vermont | 0
Virginia | 0
West Virginia | 0
Wisconsin | 0
Wyoming | 0
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Predictor Balance:
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| Treated Synthetic
-------------------------------+----------------------
beer(1984(1)1988) | 24.28 23.22596
lnincome | 10.03176 9.867266
retprice | 66.63684 65.40743
age15to24 | .1786624 .1825559
cigsale(1988) | 90.1 92.6063
cigsale(1980) | 120.2 120.3907
cigsale(1975) | 127.1 126.7094
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counter | pri_inf | dual_inf | pri_obj | dual_obj | sigfig | alpha | nu
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0 | 8.29e+001 | 7.80e-006 | -1.26e+001 | -3.93e+002 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.00e+002
1 | 5.04e-001 | 4.74e-008 | -1.26e+001 | -7.02e+002 | 0.000 | 0.9939 | 3.05e-005
2 | 2.85e-003 | 2.68e-010 | -1.25e+001 | -2.80e+001 | 0.000 | 0.9943 | 2.70e-006
3 | 1.60e-004 | 1.51e-011 | -1.26e+001 | -1.34e+001 | 1.193 | 0.9438 | 5.40e-006
4 | 1.57e-005 | 1.47e-012 | -1.26e+001 | -1.27e+001 | 2.000 | 0.9022 | 9.21e-007
5 | 9.72e-006 | 9.13e-013 | -1.26e+001 | -1.27e+001 | 2.207 | 0.3806 | 6.37e-006
6 | 2.91e-006 | 2.73e-013 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 2.714 | 0.7006 | 8.69e-007
7 | 5.05e-007 | 4.75e-014 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 3.414 | 0.8263 | 8.90e-008
8 | 1.70e-007 | 1.60e-014 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 3.881 | 0.6640 | 6.85e-008
9 | 2.24e-008 | 2.10e-015 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 4.685 | 0.8682 | 3.46e-009
10 | 2.57e-010 | 2.43e-017 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 6.512 | 0.9885 | 4.02e-012
11 | 1.28e-012 | 1.87e-018 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 8.807 | 0.9950 | 1.14e-014
12 | 6.45e-015 | 1.86e-018 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 11.104 | 0.9950 | 5.78e-017
13 | 8.88e-016 | 2.02e-018 | -1.26e+001 | -1.26e+001 | 13.407 | 0.9950 | 2.91e-019
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optimization converged